Projects Funded for J. Edward Taylor


Dynamics of Mexico-to-U.S. Migration, Climate Change, and the Farm Labor Supply


Specific Objectives
To uncover long-term trends in the farm labor supply from rural Mexico and their implications for California farms and rural communities. This project has two components. The first is to continue our work “unpacking” a negative trend in the farm labor supply, which we identified using panel econometric methods with support from a Giannini Minigrant in 2013-14, and explore the implications for specific California crops, by integrating labor into a detailed crop production model. We will estimate the relative contributions of developments in Mexico, including the expansion of rural education and nonfarm economic growth; US border enforcement; drug-related violence along the US-Mexico border; and sector- and location-specific migration networks in explaining the significant decline in rural Mexicans’ probability of doing farm work. We will simulate the implications of this decreasing farm labor supply on specific crops (in collaboration with Richard Howitt and Josue Medellin). The second component (with Katrina Jessoe) will expand work initiated in 2013 on the impacts of weather shocks on labor allocations in rural Mexico, including migration to the US. Our early findings already have been presented at several conferences and workshops. They indicate that an increase in harmful degree days in rural Mexico, particularly at the start of the maize-growing season, negatively impacts both farm and nonfarm employment and increases emigration pressures. Both components will be the basis for constructing long-term projections of changes in the supply of farm labor to Mexican and US farms, the implications for California agriculture, and the role of immigration policy in an era of less abundant farm labor.

Summary of Results
Charlton (2014) and Charlton and Taylor (2015). They were presented at the UC Davis “Frontiers of Immigration International Conference” on January 22, 2015, and they appeared in The Wall Street Journal the following day. They also have been presented to grower and farm labor conferences, including the 2015 Oregon Wine Symposium, the Harvard University Farm Labor Challenges conference (November 2014), the “Farm Labor and the ALRA at 40” conference (2015), and the Banco de Mexico (2014).

In a related study (Jessoe, Manning, and Taylor), we find evidence that rural Mexicans are less likely to work locally in years with a high occurrence of extreme heat. This reduction is largely due to a decline in non-farm labor and wage work. Extreme heat increases migration within Mexico from rural to urban areas, particularly at the height of the growing season, and international migration to the U.S. Findings from this study were presented at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2014 AAEA Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, and the Fifth World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists.


The End of Farm Labor Abundance: What it Means for California Agriculture


Specific Objectives of the Project

This project used panel econometric methods to econometrically estimate and identify the determinants of the declining trend in the farm labor supply using household data from rural Mexico and began estimating the impacts of a changing farm labor supply on California agriculture.

Summary of Results

Data from the Mexico National Rural Household Survey (Spanish acronym: ENHRUM) permit us to track a nationally representative sample of rural Mexicans into and out of farm jobs over time—a total of more than 125,000 person-years of data. Our econometric analysis of these data shows a significant decrease in people's probability of working in agricultural jobs over time. This includes agricultural work in the village, in other parts of Mexico, or in the US. The downward trend in farm labor supply is pervasive across Mexico's five census regions. The supply of agricultural labor from rural Mexico is falling at a rate of 0.13%, or 11,200 workers per year. Our preliminary findings show that a number of different factors explain rural Mexica ns' gradual shift out of farm work. We are using the ENHRUM data to analyze these factors using panel econometrics. The two largest negative factors appear to be growth in Mexico's non-farm economy and the expansion of rural schools in Mexico. Increased US border enforcement increased the farm labor supply slightly, by keeping some people from migrating to the US. Border enforcement, drug-related violence, and economic conditions in the US influence where Mexicans work more than whether or not they do farm work. All of this is against a backdrop of a dramatic fall in Mexico's fertility rate, which is 2.05 children per woman, almost the same as the US and below replacement.

The transition of Mexican workers away from agriculture will have profound impacts for the U.S. farm sector, which historically has depended on an elastic supply of Mexican farm labor and will now have to compete with Mexican farms for a dwindling supply of labor. In the short run, the ramifications of a lower agricultural labor supply are partly mitigated by a decreased labor demand because of the California drought. We have begun collaborating with Josue Medellin and Richard Howitt to integrate labor into their California crop model, which was originally designed to evaluate the impacts of drought on specific crops. We are deriving employment multipliers of the drought, and will follow this with simulations of the impacts of farm labor-supply shocks on production. This will make it possible to understand interactions among climate change, farm labor supply, and crop production in California. On the Mexico side, we have compiled daily rainfall and temperature data from all weather stations within a 50 km radius of each village in our national rural household data set for the entire period covered by our labor data (1980-2010). This, we hope, will enable us to project impacts of climate change on labor allocations—including farm labor migration—by rural Mexican households.


The "Great Recession" and the Supply of Mexican Labor to US Agriculture: A Quasi-Experimental Panel Analysis


We investigated the impacts of the "great recession" in 2008-09 on migration from rural Mexico to U.S. farm work using nationally representative panel data from households in rural Mexico with observations in years 2002, 2007, and 2010. Taylor, Charlton, and Yúnez-Naude (2012) compare individuals' employment in 2007, before the "great recession," and in 2010, after the recession. The study found a greater percentage decline in the number of rural Mexicans migrating to farm than nonfarm jobs in the U.S., even though the demand for farm labor remained steady throughout the recession. Of the migrants who remained in the U.S. between 2007 and 2010, some switched from the nonfarm to the farm sector, as expected given the change in the relative demand for labor across sectors, but even more migrants switched from the farm to the nonfarm sector. Additionally, the number of workers in the Mexican nonfarm sector grew steadily from 2002 through 2010. This evidence suggests that the rural Mexican workforce is transitioning off the farm. Our panel econometric estimates confirm this. The transition of the labor force away from farm work is consistent with a trend observed in nearly every country around the world: as per capita GDP rises, the share of workers in agriculture rapidly declines. The transition of Mexican workers away from agriculture will have profound impacts for the U.S. farm sector, which historically has depended on an elastic supply of Mexican farm labor and will now have to compete with Mexican farms for a dwindling supply of labor. To adjust to a smaller supply of labor, in the future U.S. farming will need to become more mechanized, relying on fewer and more productive workers. This will impact both the U.S. farm industry and rural communities; increasing skills and wages of farm workers may help break a vicious circle of farm employment, immigration, and poverty.


Trade Liberalization and Vertical Exchange Mechanisms: The Case of Mexican Avocados


The Supply of Mexican Labor to U. S. and California Farms


The Causes and Consequences of Rural to Urban Migration in Mexico and China and the Implications for the U.S. (California)


Gender, Financial Markets and Mexican Migration to the United States


Measuring the Community Effects of Water Trades


Poverty Amid Prosperity Revisited: Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California


Immigration and Changing Face of Rural California: Findings in the 2000 Census


Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California: Focus on Coastal California (2000) and the Imperial Valley (2001)


Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California: Focus on the Sacramento Valley


Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California: Focus on the Central Valley