Specific Objectives of the Project:
The average employment of hired workers in California agriculture was 425,000 in 2016, almost three times the 152,000 average employment in the state’s food manufacturing industry. Almost a million unique workers fill full-time equivalent jobs on California farms, a ratio of 2.2 workers per FTE job, and average employment is rising.

This project focuses on three issues of great importance to California agriculture. The first is immigration, which determines the supply of labor to California agriculture since 90 percent of the state’s farm workers were born abroad. The second is adjustments to fewer unauthorized newcomers, including the 4-S strategies, of satisfying current workers, stretching them with productivity enhancements, substituting machines for hand workers, and supplementing the current workforce with H-2A guest workers. The third issue analyzes the effects of state regulatory changes, including the minimum wage of $15 an hour and the requirement to pay overtime wages after eight hours a day or 40 a week in 2022.

The project supports several major activities, including research articles, shorter papers in ARE Update and the quarterly Rural Migration News as well as monthly blogs (http://migration.ucdavis.edu). We host a major research and public conference each year that attracts over 120 participants; the conferences scheduled for March 19-20, 2020 was postponed due to the coronavirus. The results of the project are disseminated widely, including in the new edition of Giannini’s California Agriculture book and to the more than 1,000 subscribers of the Rural Migration newsletter and blogs. The project had numerous interactions with federal and state analysts, journalists, and others.

Project Report/Summary of Results:
Farm employment has been rising as more expensive land and water encourages a switch to high value fruits and vegetables. Average farm employment has been increasing by 10,000 a year, and the number of unique workers employed in agriculture has been expanding by 20,000 a year, so that in 2016 almost a million unique workers filled an average 425,000 farm jobs.

The hired workers on crop farms are aging (average 41 and approaching the average 42 of all US workers) and settling in one place with their families. Follow-the-crop migration has almost disappeared, and there are fewer unauthorized newcomers, making the current farm workforce less flexible. Farm employers are responding with 4-S strategies. Employers try to satisfy current workers to retain them longer and stretch them with mechanical aids that increase productivity by making farm work easier. The third strategy is substitution, replacing workers with machines, or switching crops, and the fourth is to supplement with H-2A guest workers, who have become the flexible newcomers to the farm workforce.

In the medium term, the two dominant strategies are substitution and supplement, a race between labor-saving technologies and guest worker admissions. Responses vary by commodity, and are influenced by policy decisions. For example, the raisin industry is likely to shrink faster as labor costs rise and some farmers mechanize while others switch to almonds. Strawberries are more likely to supplement with guest workers and use conveyor belts in the fields to stretch workers until there is a mechanization breakthrough. Imports are the wild card, and may play an increasing role in supplying some commodities to US consumers.

The project monitored the impacts of farm labor developments on the competitiveness of California agriculture, conducted research that was published in a variety of outlets, and made presentations to a dozen groups ranging from the National Council of Agricultural Employers to the Agricultural Personnel Management Association, plus talks in classes at UCD and elsewhere. In March-April 2020, the project generated several short papers on the coronavirus.

Specific Objectives of the Project
The average employment of hired workers in California agriculture has been rising, topping 420,000 in 2015, almost three times the 152,000 average employment in the state’s food manufacturing industry. Almost 850,000 unique workers fill these full-time equivalent jobs, a ratio of two workers per FTE job.

This project focused on three issues. First was immigration, and how the stepped-up enforcement of the Trump Administration affected the supply of labor to California agriculture. Second was the effect of fewer unauthorized newcomers and less follow-the-crop migrancy, prompting farm employers to respond with 4-S strategies, viz, satisfy, stretch, substitute, and supplement current workforces. Third was analysis of the likely effects of the state’s increasing minimum wage, which will reach to $15 an hour in 2022, and the effects of buyer-imposed labor-compliance programs on fruit and vegetable growers.

The project supported a major conference April 13, 2018 at the UCD Law School that attracted over 120 participants to discuss NAFTA, H-2A, immigration and ALRB issues. Dissemination included research articles, shorter papers in ARE Update, and Rural Migration News (http://migration.ucdavis.edu), which analyzes the most important farm labor and water issues facing California agriculture each quarter for over 1,000 subscribers. There were also numerous interactions with federal and state analysts, journalists, and others interested in farm labor issues.

Project Report/Summary of Results
Farm employment has been rising as more expensive land and water is used to produce labor-intensive fruits and vegetables. Employment Development Department show that average farm employment has been rising by 10,000 a year, and the number of unique workers employed in agriculture had increased by 20,000 a year, so that in 2015 almost 850,000 unique workers filled an average 420,000 farm jobs.

The hired workers on crop farms are aging (average 40 and approaching the average 42 of all US workers) and settling in one place with their families. Follow-the-crop migration has almost disappeared, making farm workers less flexible to move to where farm jobs are being created. Farm employers are responding with 4-S strategies. Employers try to satisfy current workers to retain them longer and stretch them with mechanical aids that increase productivity and make farm work easier. The third strategy is substitution, replacing workers with machines, or switching crops, and the fourth is to supplement with H-2A guest workers.
In the medium term, the two dominant strategies are likely to be substitution and supplement, a race between labor-saving technologies and guest worker admissions determined by labor cost trends. Responses will vary by commodity, and be influenced by policy decisions. For example, the raisin industry is likely to shrink faster as labor costs rise and some farmers mechanize while others switch to almonds. Strawberries are more likely to supplement with guest workers and use conveyor belts to stretch workers until there is a mechanization breakthrough. Imports are the wild card in responses, and may play an important role in supplying some commodities to US consumers.

The project monitored the impacts of farm labor developments on the competitiveness of California agriculture, conducted research that was published in a variety of outlets, and made presentations to a dozen groups ranging from the CA Association of Winegrape Growers to the National Milk Producers Federation, plus talks in classes at UCD and elsewhere.

Specific Objectives of the Project
Hired workers do most of California’s farm work, almost all were born outside the US, and two-thirds are not authorized to work in the US. Agriculture uses about 80 percent of the state's developed or storable water that can be delivered via dams and canals, and received no federal and 20 percent of contracted state water in 2015.

This project conducted research, held conferences, and disseminated reliable and timely information on the labor and water challenges facing California agriculture. The research brought together data from several sources to establish a reliable baseline against which to assess the likely effects of immigration reforms. The slowdown in Mexico-US migration has generated 4-S responses among farmers: satisfy current workers to retain them longer in the farm work force, stretch the current work force with mechanical aids that increase productivity and make farm work easier, substitute machines for workers, and supplement the workforce with H-2A guest workers.

The project supported a major conference April 15, 2016 at the UCD Law School that attracted over 100 participants to discuss water, labor, immigration, and union activities. Dissemination included research articles, shorter papers in ARE Update, and Rural Migration News, which analyzes the most important farm labor and water issues facing California agriculture each quarter for over 1,000 subscribers.

Project Report/Summary of Results
Farmers often fear shortages of water and labor. Both have been in short supply in recent years due to drought and reduced Mexico-US migration. California agriculture may be at a crossroads on both issues, facing higher costs and more uncertainty about the availability of two critical inputs.

Despite the drought, farm sales have been rising. Farm sales were $47 billion in 2012, $51 billion in 2013, and $53 billion in 2014. Three factors shape the longer term outlook for water. First, most climate-change models expect warmer winters that are less suited to California’s water storage and transport system. Second is the hardening of the demand for water, as trees and vines that must be watered for 20 to 30 years replace annual crops on land that can be fallowed in dry years. Third is the possibility of water marketing to shift water around the state.

The average employment of hired workers in California agriculture rose 12 percent over the past decade, reaching 415,000 in 2014. Average employment is a measure of full-time equivalent jobs, not farm workers. Some 829,000 unique workers filled these jobs, a ratio of two workers per FTE job.

Farm employers face labor challenges, including paying the statewide $15 minimum wage by 2022. The federal minimum wage was $7.25 an hour in 2015, which was 42 percent of the $17.40 US median hourly wage of all US workers, while the California minimum wage of $9 was 47 percent of the state’s $19.15 median wage. Median wages vary within California, and the $15 an hour minimum wage in 2022 is projected to be 70 percent or more of the median wage in the San Joaquin Valley that includes half of the state’s farm workers.

The H-2A program has been expanding, quadrupling in California to over 10,000 jobs certified to be filled with guest workers in the past five years. If there is no DAPA or other immigration reforms, the farm labor stage could be set for a return to the 1950s, when some farmers built housing on their farms and others joined labor cooperatives that housed Bracero guest workers and moved them from one farm to another employed as needed.

Farm sales have risen despite drought and declining migration, demonstrating the adaptability of California agriculture.