Projects Funded for Colin Carter

2021-2022

Putting an End to the Trade War? Trade Effects on California Agriculture

  • Jiayi (Carol) Dong
  • Colin Carter

2020-2021

Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on California Agriculture

  • Jiayi (Carol) Dong
  • Sandro Steinbach
  • Colin Carter

Abstract

Specific Objectives of the Project:
In 2018 the U.S. government started a trade war with China and other trading partners. In response to import tariffs imposed by the U.S., China and other countries responded with retaliatory import tariffs, explicitly targeting U.S. agricultural exports. This study investigated the consequences of retaliatory tariffs on the agricultural and food industry in California. We had two specific objectives. First, we measured the ‘net’ impact of the retaliatory import tariffs on California’s agricultural and food exports. Second, we measured the extent to which U.S. federal trade-war subsidies offset producer losses arising from the retaliatory tariffs.

Project Report/Summary of Results:
The U.S. substantially increased a number of import tariffs in 2018, precipitating a trade war that was very costly to U.S. agriculture, given its dependence on international trade. The losses arose because a number of trading partners retaliated with import tariffs targeted at U.S. agricultural exports. The U.S. government then created a Market Facilitation Pro-gram (MFP) to compensate U.S. farmers for trade war losses. We have found that except for cotton and rice, California farmers were not made whole by the MFP payments. California’s producers of tree nuts, dairy, and processed fruits and vegetables were the biggest losers.
Our research concludes that the U.S. government under-estimated the overall economic losses incurred by California’s agricultural and food producers due to the 2018 trade war. While the MFP program overcompensated some farmers, others faced substantial trade-war losses that outweighed MFP payments. Particularly export-oriented food processors were heavily affected by retaliatory tariffs but received no compensation from the U.S. government. The unequal treatment of agricultural and food producers impacted by the 2018 trade war is a pattern also observed in other states. However, these inequalities are more pronounced in California than in any other state. California’s producers focus on high value-added products and have a significant stake in reducing trade barriers everywhere and in particular in China. We believe the MFP payments may have jeopardized international trade arrangements because the excessive payments violated U.S. farm subsidy commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and this could be challenged at the WTO. This means the effects of the trade war may drag on.

2014-2015

Measuring the Effects of Climate Change and Ground-level Ozone on Agricultural Yields in China

  • Colin Carter
  • Dalia Ghanem

2008-2009

Potential Costs of Accidental Contamination of the Rice Crop by Unapproved Genetically Modified Material

  • Colin Carter

2007-2008

From Orange Juice to Cattle: Using Intertemporal Price Spreads to Measure the Influence of Hedge Funds in Futures Markets

  • Colin Carter

2006-2007

The California Strawberry Industry's Response to State Regulation of Methyl Bromide

  • Colin Carter
  • James Chalfant

2005-2006

GM Rice Cultivation in California: Importance of Market Acceptance

  • Colin Carter

2004-2005

The Market for Non Genetically Modified Rice: Segregation Costs and Strategies

  • Colin Carter

2003-2004

Labeling Policies and International Trade of Genetically Modified Foods

  • Colin Carter
  • Y. Hossein Farzin

2002-2003

Did NAFTA Impact the Use of Unfair Trade Laws in Agricultural Trade?

  • Colin Carter

2001-2002

Economic Impact of Agricultural Tariff-Rate Quotas: Implications for California Agriculture

  • Colin Carter

1999-2000

Patterns in China's Agricultural Trade Balance: Implications for World Markets

  • Colin Carter