Projects Funded for Andrew Hultgren


The Impacts of Climate Change on Global Grain Production, Accounting for Adaptation

Andrew Hultgren, Michael Anderson, and Matt Tarduno


Specific Objectives of the Project:

The project’s objectives were to answer the following research questions:

1. Under a wide range of climate models and GHG policy futures, what will be the geographically distinct impacts of climate change on yields of key agricultural products (maize, soy, rice, wheat, sorghum, and cassava)?

2. What is the role of farmer adaptation to a changing climate, as well as changing incomes, in mitigating the effects of climate change on yields?

3. How much do the costs of farmer adaptation offset any adaptation gains they might realize?

Summary of Results:

Over the time period of the GF grant we estimated the responsiveness of spring and winter wheat to temperature and precipitation shocks, accounting for heterogeneity over local climate (long-run temperature and long-run precipitation), local income, and local access to irrigation. We additionally completed a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of the impacts of climate change on yields of six staple crops at global scale, accounting for adaptation: corn, soybean, rice, wheat, cassava, and sorghum. We found that adaptation is at least partially protective for all crops, but global productivity losses ranging from 25-45% percent (point estimates) persist for all crops except rice, for which adaptation is fully protective.