Drought, Jobs, and Controversy: Revisiting 2009
Howitt, Richard E., Duncan MacEwan, and Josué Medellín-Azuara
The effect of the 2009 water shortage on San Joaquin Valley agricultural jobs was a contentious topic which was exacerbated by conflicting job-loss estimates. In hindsight, econometric analysis of payrolls for employment and satellite data on crop fallowing have provided a clear measure of the extent of job losses in the San Joaquin Valley. However, droughts will occur again, and forecasts will have to be made. This paper presents the forecasts made, analyzes the reasons for differences in the forecasts, provides a final estimate of job losses, and draws insights for meaningful forecasts in the future.
Howitt, Richard E., Duncan MacEwan, and Josué Medellín-Azuara. 2011. "Drought, Jobs, and Controversy: Revisiting 2009." ARE Update 14(6): 1-4. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.